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10 Apr 09 Keynesian Economics Is Wrong: Bigger Gov’t Is Not Stimulus

Based on a theory known as Keynesianism, politicians are resuscitating the notion that more government spending can stimulate an economy. This mini-documentary produced by the Center for Freedom and Prosperity Foundation examines both theory and evidence and finds that allowing politicians to spend more money is not a recipe for better economic performance.

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10 Apr 09 KEATING ECONOMICS: John McCain The Making of a Financial Crisis

Learn more at http://www.keatingeconomics.com (corrected audio version)

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10 Apr 09 Economic Background For Investment In Thailand Part 2

The First National Economic Development Plan continually emphasized development in Thailand. The Second National Economic Development Plan continually emphasized the development of infrastructure in such areas as communication and transportation. The Third Plan was named, the National Economic Development Plan, as it combined social economic development along with economic development in efforts to improve the quality of life for all Thais.

The Fourth Economic Development Plan was instituted during the economic recovery period and mans significant Economic and Social Development plan, although there was worldwide economic fluctuation, Thailand concentrated on eradicating rural poverty, increasing domestic productivity and developing the eastern Seaboard area. The Sixth National Economic and Social Development Plan could be lebeled the golden period as the Thai economic growth in every sector was substantially increased. Currently, the Seventh Economic Development and Social Development Plan emphasized equitable income distribution and environmental awareness in order to conserve sacred environmental resources.

Throughout the process of performing the seven National Economic and Social Development Plans, new goals of development to accomplish were growth, stability, employment, income distribution and balance of trade. Each of the seven plans had contributed to outcomes of one or another of those goals. Determining the effectiveness of Thailand: national development is a long process in which the better quality of living and well being of the nation are concerned.

The first plan (1961-1966) : A new era of economic development

The first plan can be divided into two periods, between 1961 to 1963 and between 1964 to 1966: however, these time frames are more for illustrative purposes as no actual National Economic Development Plan had been officially declared. The Plan consisted of a variety of development projects: moreover, statistics and data necessary for economic planning were not available to the planning agencies at that time.

The First Plan succeeded in setting the Thai economy onto a new track. Economic growth increased by 6.1 percent a year. The economy became more balanced by reducing the size of the agricultural sector from 38.3 percent of GDP in 1961 to 33.9 percent in 1966. Although the agricultural sector was a major part of the GDP. This sector become more diversified by producing more new crops.

Thai international Trade traditionally consisted of exporting a small amount of commodities and importing consumer goods. Seventy percent of exports consisted of rice, rubber, tin and teak, but in 1960, these efforts were reduced to 52.6 percent. Imported consumer goods were reduced from 35.0 percent of total imports in 1960 to 25.5 percent in 1966, while the import of capital goods increased from 24.6 percent of total imports in 1960 to 30.8 in 1966.

The Second Plan (1967-1971): The Foundation of the Infrastructure

The Thai economy was now in a new era of development since the initiation of the First Plan. Toward the end of the First Plan.

Thailand had an increase in political conflict. Both internally and externally. These conflicts led to higher government expenditures for bureaucratic administration and for strengthening of internal affairs in order to protect Thailand from external threat. The budget for economic development declined from 30.3 percent of the government expenditure during the First Plan to 17.4 percent in the Second Plan.

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10 Apr 09 Keynesian Economics is a Failure

Keynesian exuberance for the powers of stimulating demand or the ‘consumer’ has been in vogue since the 1930s. It is sheer nonsense which is taught in every school across the globe. Keynesian economics is little more than intellectual pablum used by those in power or by a technocratic and largely illiterate elite to increase their power; enhance government; print money and otherwise destroy normal economic relationships. Keynes’ theory, so believed by professors is in practice a disaster.

Keynes was a left wing wall flower and a member of the deranged Bloomsbury group of inter-World War British pacifists. He was an arrogant theorist who truly believed in the magical elixir of large government and in the technocratic dream of controlling billions of personal, business and economic decisions, to programmatically construct a perfect world order. Keynes gave intellect and jargon filled cover and rationale to politicians and demagogues who would cite his book, ‘The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money’, to justify state interventionism.

According to this theory which has failed in practice every time it has been tried, governments can stimulate an economy through granting consumers, workers and businesses sums of borrowed money. This is termed a ’stimulus’. This debt or current deficit financing stimulus, is then paid back or retired, when the economy strengthened by consumer spending and business investment, produces a surplus of tax revenues. The stimulus is needed, so argued Keynes, to overcome business cycles, downturns and unexpected events which would decrease jobs, increase unemployment and impact state revenues. By macro and micro-managing economic and production processes, the state, so thought Keynes, would avoid cyclical variations and ensure that the lowest level of unemployment could be maintained. Government power was thus indispensable to full employment and income equality.

There are many problems with such a counter-rational plan to economic management. None of Keynes’ core assumptions make sense when they are analysed either separately or together. Business cycles have historically been caused by governments, and they are usually a response to government policies to increase the size of the state through trade barriers, higher taxation, more spending, more regulation and programs of fear and compliance. The Great Depression, the 70s Stagflation and the current financial crisis are all obvious examples of this fact. Government causing economic malaise would appear to mean that government programs are not the solutions required to either get out of an economic downturn, nor to prevent future derailments from taking place.

The main impact of Keynesian economic stimuli is to increase debt; raise future tax rates and distort the normal functionings of economic markets and personal and corporate decision making. Governments choose winners and confirm losers. The winners will include companies which get bailed out, those receiving welfare, unions and others having their jobs protected, those receiving redistributed incomes and those paid off for political support. The losers invariably include firms both domestic and international who want fair and free trade; higher income families; small businesses who are classified under high income categories; future generations who must pay off the debt; and consumers who pay a higher costs for all products and services.

Under Keynesian philosophy, government and technocrats assume the role of God. Given the poverty of God heads throughout history, this is probably not a noble supposition to support.

Brian Reidl from Heritage Institute wrong an excellent article recently on the fallacy that government spending, or what is termed Keynesian deficit spending, run by God-heads, is beneficial (see Reidl

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/authors.aspx?GUID=220a4261-b3c8-4338-a5be-62bcc3f3b8d3). In this article he makes the following important points about demand-side management and the Keynesian ****** for economic control.

“Government cannot create new purchasing power out of thin air. If Congress funds new spending with taxes, it is simply redistributing existing income. If Congress instead borrows the money from domestic investors, those investors will have that much less to invest or to spend in the private economy. If Congress borrows the money from foreigners, the balance of payments will adjust by equally reducing net exports, leaving GDP unchanged. Every dollar Congress spends must first come from somewhere else.

This does not mean that government spending has no economic impact at all. Government spending often alters the consumption of total demand, such as increasing consumption at the expense of investment.”

When stimulus packages are created the money has to come from someone via taxes, or be printed. Both are net negatives to the economy. Economic growth only results from producing more goods and services (not from redistributing existing income), and that requires productivity growth and growth in the labor supply as productivity not only increases wealth but also wages and wage opportunities.

Historically of course government spending has reduced productivity and long-term economic growth due to some obvious reasons. As government spends more it raises taxes which reduces profits, productivity and wage and job creation. As government incurs more debt through stimulus and demand side packages it reduces the incentive to produce and displaces money by removing the more productive private sector from the economic equation and replacing it with a far less effective state dollar, taxed or printed on government printing press. The inefficiency of government policy in health, housing, education, and general industry are obvious creating huge costs which must be borne by ordinary taxpayers – ineffective solutions at a higher price one can say.

And as Reidl sources and proves:

“Mountains of academic studies show how government expansions reduce economic growth:

1.Public Finance Review reported that “higher total government expenditure, no matter how financed, is associated with a lower growth rate of real per capita gross state product.”

2.The Quarterly Journal of Economics reported that “the ratio of real government consumption expenditure to real GDP had a negative association with growth and investment,” and “growth is inversely related to the share of government consumption in GDP, but insignificantly related to the share of public investment.”

3.A Journal of Macroeconomics study discovered that “the coefficient of the additive terms of the government-size variable indicates that a 1% increase in government size decreases the rate of economic growth by 0.143%.”

4.Public Choice reported that “a one percent increase in government spending as a percent of GDP (from, say, 30 to 31%) would raise the unemployment rate by approximately .36 of one percent (from, say, 8 to 8.36 percent).”

It is obvious that Keynesian economics and demand management are tools for fools. Wealth, a better society, a cleaner world, a higher level of development is not coerced by government. It only occurs when free people operating in free markets are allowed to interact and determine the price and supply of various goods and services. Government involvement ensures the opposite and is a theory mired in cultish theological absurdity.

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09 Apr 09 The Importance of Understanding Economic Terms

The Importance of Understanding Economic Terms

The term "Economics" is commonly defined as "The science of how people make choices for the allocation of scarce resources to satisfy their unlimited desires."

Though a major concern, which analysts should pay more attention to, the distribution of wealth has lately become less important than it used to be. The science dealing with this is political economy, which is the science that has to do with the nature of and of economic value, together with the production and distribution of valuable goods and services.

It is very important for everyone to thoroughly understand a set of highly used economic terms, such as wealth, production, value, labor, land, etc, and here are some of the definitions of these economic terms:

· Wealth – all material things produced by labor for the satisfaction of human desires and having a certain exchange value.

Moreover, wealth is material and is produced by workforce and it can satisfy human desires. However, contrary to common belief, money is not considered wealth, if not a medium of exchange, because of which, one can acquire wealth, which also has exchange value.

Production – all the processes by which human labor creates valuable goods and services and brings them to the ultimate consumer.

Production includes not only the producing or manufacturing of goods, but it also has to do the process of bringing them directly to the consumer. The factors that help produce wealth are land, labor and also capital.

· Value – the quantity of labor or products of labor that people are generally willing to give in exchange for something.

The economic value of an item is just what it will exchange for, under normal circumstances.

· Land – the entire material universe exclusive of people and their products.

Land includes not only the dry surface of earth, if not all other natural materials, as well as forces and opportunities.

· Labor – all human exertion in the production of wealth and services.

Both entrepreneurs along with blue-collars are part of this category; labor does not only refer to physical strength, whereby finished products are produced, if not also to mental work, whereby wealth is also produced.

· Capital – wealth used in the process of production, or in the course of exchange.

· Distribution – The division of wealth among the factors, which produce it.

Rent, wages and interest are the avenues of distribution are, and here is also their definition:

· Rent – that part of wealth, which is the return for the use of land.

· Wages – that part of wealth, which is the return to labor.

· Interest – that part of wealth, which is the return for the use of capital.

These factors involved in production all work together and produce a "pie", called "wealth."

Further reading on www.economywatch.com and www.economypedia.com:

Economic Terms on EconomyWatch

Encyclopedia of Economic Terms – Economypedia.com

Definition of "Global Economy"

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09 Apr 09 Fundamentals of Economics & Core Issues in Economics

FUNDAMENTALS of ECONOMICS

The Aim & Scope of Economics:

The study of economics is aimed at finding the natural law governing an economy and its scope is to find the ideal principles for the working of an economy based on those findings.

There is no such Thing as Free Lunch:

It is the most fundamental law of nature that every thing has either monetary or non-monetary value. Though generally things have both monetary and non-monetary aspects, never the less for the purpose of simplicity and understanding we only consider monetary aspect of things in economics.

INVISBILE HAND

This is the most vital as well as an extremely difficult idea to logically explain, and however absolutely impossible to mathematically prove it. Perhaps in order to understand it one needs to think beyond logic and one may comprehend it after one’s own peculiar experiences. How the invisible hand plays it role in making financial shifts among individuals, groups and even among nations can be understood by studying natural phenomenon viz., the animal world, the plant world, the rotation of the solar system, the rain, diseases, wars, natural disasters etc. Moreover the mental state of an individual changes continuously and mysteriously which affects one’s decision making and other faculties that results in changes in one’s economic/financial conditions. Uncontrollable and unpredictable invisible factors beyond human control brought financial changes.

Defining Economics:

Economics deals with the efficient management (by the individuals & entrepreneurs) of scarce resources to satisfy unlimited human wants by applying science & technology in the market.

* Efficiency can be defined as doing things in a best possible manner.

Basic Economic Problem:

Scarcity of Resources, Unlimited Wants & Choice:

It is a known fact that our resources (time, raw materials, land, human resources, machines, money etc.) are limited while our wants are unlimited and recurring therefore we have to make some choice among available alternatives to satisfy our wants.

Economic Resources:

Economic resources can be broadly divided into following four categories:

o Land & Raw Materials:

These are free gifts of nature. All things derived from nature are included in this category.

o Labor:

It consists of the contribution of human beings.

o Capital:

It consists of plant & Equipment.

o Mind/Entrepreneurial Ability:

Entrepreneurial ability refers to the ability to organize production and bear risks. Some people are more intelligent and have the gift of managing things better than others. It is due to their contribution that societies develop. Due to this reason we categorize this resource separately from labor.

Motivating Force – Self Interest:

It is the self-interest that makes us act. Here it is also very important to mention that economics cannot be separated from other fields of study. All knowledge is interrelated. Adam Smith, who has significant influence in formulating modern western economic thought, was a professor of moral philosophy, which deals with finding the ideal kind of life. It is a fact that every individual tries to gain best from his/her available resources to make one happy. It is assumed that individuals will follow his/her interest to make choice among different alternatives. It is also important to mention here that self-interest is entirely different from selfishness. As a general rule of life: “Enlightened Self Interest is the best interest”.

*Selfishness is a short term while enlightened self-interest is a long-term phenomenon.

Logic & Logical Fallacies:

All interpersonal communication is based on logic. Likewise all human knowledge, that is experiences and views of all human beings since inception, is also communicated on the base of logic. Though logic fails at very minute as well as very huge levels, still because of human limitation in our interpersonal communication we are dependant on logic. Logic can be defined as a science of correct reasoning.

o Logical Errors/Mistakes:

Here we will mention the two main fallacies of logic that makes human knowledge erroneous. They are:

§ post hoc, ergo propter hoc fallacy (association as causation)

It occurs when one incorrectly assumes that one event is the cause of another because it precedes other.

§ Fallacy of composition

It occurs when it is incorrectly assumed that what is true for each individual in isolation is also true for an entire group.

Demand & supply:

In any economy prices of goods are determined by the interaction of demand and supply. All study of economics revolves around these two fundamental concepts.

o Demand:

Demand is a relationship between price & quantity demanded of a good in a given period of time while keeping other factors like tastes, preferences, status etc. constant i.e., considering only price as a determining factor.

o Supply:

Supply is relationship between price and quantity supplied of a good in a given period of time while keeping other things constant i.e., considering only price as a determining factor.

CORE ISSUES IN ECNOMICS:

Role of Government:

The proper role of government should be as minimal as possible. For efficient management, civil society is much more important and efficient than political society.

The market, by the interaction of demand and supply, not the state, should set wages and prices. Similarly monetary policy should also be set by interaction of market forces. Taxes levied by the government should be minimal. Lower taxes would provide the fundamental incentive for the entrepreneurs and individuals to work hard and to reinvest for greater profits that would consequently raise economic activity. The role of government should be as minimal as possible so government should do only those things private citizens can’t do for themselves. The corruption level is extremely high in public enterprises and also the efficiency of public enterprises is much lower than that of private enterprises.

Government should control its expenditure and it should match expenses with revenue. Bigger government is the biggest problem. Therefore decentralization and only taking those tasks that private enterprise cannot perform; are highly desirable for efficient management.

Rules and regulations should be formulated with a view for maintaining justice among members of the society and law should be equal for all.

Tariffs and other barriers to trade should be completely abolished, gradually. Free trade can greatly and rapidly improve the general economic condition and consequently social condition of the society. In short, government governs best which governs least.

Entrepreneur & Entrepreneurship:

Entrepreneurship is a vital aspect for economic growth and development. Because of its importance this should be studied in depth. Entrepreneurs are gifted individuals who have the gift of managing resources and have keen foresight to visualize things much better than ordinary people. High growing economies provide viable environment and freedom for the entrepreneurship to grow that eventually led to the development and growth of economies.

Economic Growth:

An important element and field of study in economics is economic growth. Essentially the motive behind all economic activity is in raising the standard of living. We study that how standard of living is raised. Education plays a pivotal role in raising general standard of living in the long run. Capital formation results from prudently managing resources and by finding new ways to improve the present means of production by using new technology; that is a consequence of knowledge gained by acquiring education. Therefore capital formation is the key factor for economic growth.

Trade:

Exchange, monetary or non monetary, is an integral part of any human activity. Human exchange views/goods/services etc because they feel that they will gain by exchanging. However, in economics we are only concerned with monetary exchange of views/goods/services etc. It is wrongly assumed that our world is a zero-sum world where gain by some is loss of other. Factually and fortunately we are living in a positive sum world. If this had been the case then progress in our world would have never been possible. Never the less it does not entail that in all monetary exchanges both parties will equally gain. Moreover the value gained in an exchange between two individuals or groups can never be evaluated precisely by the third party because the value of an exchange is very different for different individuals.

Free and greater trade, free from force and coercion, would result in comparatively more fair deals and consequently the chances of greater gains by both parties are more realizable.

Factually accurate information is not fully known that results in greater imbalances from trade. As a hypothetical rule we can very easily infer that where accurate information is known both trading parties gain.

Competition:

The prevalence of competition in the filed of economics in world is universal, because of scarce resources and innumerous and recurring wants. Where competition has negative implications, it has also positive implications. It is the element of competition that drives different individuals to excel from others, which results in greater discoveries, technological advancements and pursuit for finding new ways to earn greater profits that consequently raise general prosperity level in the world. It is unethical aspects of competition where some individuals initiate force and fraud that causes violence in the society. Competition can never be eliminated from any society; rather any attempt to eliminate competition would result in regression and more violence. Therefore, check should only be imposed on negative effects of competition.

Cooperation:

For the efficient management of the resources (time, skills, natural etc) human need to cooperate to make optimal use of these resources. Moreover most of the natural resources need to be transformed for use and to make them valuable. Groups need to cooperate to be successful. Cooperation juxtaposed with positive competition is an ideal combination for efficiency.

Specialization & Comparative Advantage:

Natural inequality among humans is a fact of life. Economics aims at efficient management; therefore to make best use of human resources different individuals specializes in those particular fields in which they can be better than others because of their natural abilities. Due to this reason some individuals have comparative advantage over others.

Information:

Information is very important for making informed rational decisions. However accurate information is impossible by any individual because of the human mind, because every human being is unique, and also due to unpredictable future. Information about market behavior is extremely diverse and ubiquitous. Therefore it is not possible for any individual to accrue the available information and our decisions about future at best are mere estimate with enormous possibilities.

Profit & Loss:

The expectant and prevailing profit and loss are the determining factors for the investments. It provides the criteria for the goods and services to be produced. Where in the short run demand of the products is the primary factor in stimulating the investment trends, profit or loss is the litmus test for products produced in the long run.

Trade Off:

It’s a general principle that in order to gain something one needs to loose something. The most important resource for an individual, time is limited. Therefore no one can do all the things oneself, so a rational individual focuses one’s time on those tasks where one can perform best. However it is quite impossible to precisely quantify the time one put in some particular activity is equal to the forgone activity/activities. Nonetheless for the purpose of understanding this concept economists assume that the price of engaging in some activity is equal to the cost of the other activity/activities one has forgone.

Price Theory:

Demand for and supply of products determines their prices in the market. It is wrongly asserted by the majority of the people that cost of goods determines the prices of the product. In actuality it is the marketing activities of the producers and the perception of the consumers about the products that determine the prices of the products. As a general rule higher the prices lower will be the demand and vice versa. However in some cases due to the nature of the product and the marketing efforts of the producers higher prices lead to higher demand.

Causality — Cause & Effect:

Despite limitations of logic, causality is the most important phenomenon in understanding economic theory and practice. Excluding mega-microscopic and mega-macroscopic phenomenon, every cause has some effect and that effect is a cause of some other effect ad infinitum. Due to this cause and effect relationship in a world of numerous individuals and groups their actions has great impact on other elements in the economy. Despite the complexity of this relationship that is also chaotic, understanding this relationship can help enormously in making good estimates about the future and to form comparatively sound opinions about the market trends.

Labor Economics:

In this field we study that how wages are determined. Like all other markets the wages are set by the interaction of demand and supply. Higher wages can only be achieved by greater investment and economic activity in the long run. Employment and unemployment are also the key issues that we study in this field. Ups and downs in the economy are the facts that cannot be avoided. Higher consumption level asks for greater capital investments that will raise general wage level and results in lower unemployment.

Uncertainty:

No one knows the future. It’s the fear of future that is an integral part of our lives and also an impetus for human activity. This factor of uncertainty gave birth to the idea of risk. There is always degree of risk in all human activities. As a general rule: “higher the risk, higher the reward”. Uncertainty is also nature’s law of rewarding and punishing the human actions. Moreover it is also a way of nature of teaching

and making known new ideas to the new participants and making room for the new and efficient members.

Public Finance:

The filed of public finance is directly related with role of government. Bigger the government, larger the funds are needed to finance it. The accountability principle is of pivotal importance in public enterprises because the ownership of these enterprises has no personal owners. Moreover, fund should be received from those who get benefits from that service.

Money & Banking:

Banking in an economy is the determining factor for gauging its performance. Money is the medium of exchange that facilitates transactions among participants of an economy. Banks play the role of intermediaries. Interest rates and value of currency with relation to other international currencies is set by central banks. However ideally it is best that market forces of demand and supply determine them.

Consumption & Saving:

Raising the consumption level is key factor to all economic activities for reducing costs, creating employment, raising standard of living and eliminating poverty.

On the other hand, raising consumption greatly can result in undue depletion of resources in a given market and cause inflation. If this situation prolongs that would result in recession to depression. Therefore a sagacious policy of moderation is the ideal combination.

Marketing:

Marketing is the key for stimulating demand and consequently enhancing economic activity. Entrepreneurs have the sharp ability of marketing to understand the economic environment and knowing the customer demand ahead of time and finding new segments that would consequently raise general standard of living.

Cost & Production:

Every thing entails cost. Finding the best methods to produce goods at minimum possible cost is essential for firms to earn profits and compete successfully.

Technology:

Technology makes the difference between the present age and the previous one. The problems faced by humans in all times are quite similar yet the technology of their respective eras determines the mode of production as well as way of living. Technology is of utmost importance for understanding economics because by applying it we enormously reduce costs and even reach new markets that could not have been possible with out technology. Moreover it raises standard of living by simplifying the complex tasks.

Poverty:

The problem of poverty is the focal point in the field of economics. Ignorance is the main cause of poverty. The best way to eradicate poverty is by spreading knowledge.

(Lahore, Nov 16, 2003)

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09 Apr 09 Economic Justice and Democratization of Economy to Create Ideal Society

Economic Justice and Democratization of Economy to create Ideal Society

By

Prof Viswanathan,

Director,

International Socio-Economic Research Bureau

(E Mail Id : economist@dataone.in)

DECLARATION OF JUSTICE AND HUMAN RIGHTS

We, the people of all the countries, in harmony with the sovereignty of the Universal Justice hold these truths to be self-evident that every creator has inalienable ‘Right to Ownership’ on his creations and the Natural laws empowers the creators that only he should use his creations exclusively for the welfare and uplift of the human society as a whole, in which he is an inseparable member.

We declare with all judicial power derived from Natural laws that among all creations of man, his creation of capital alone has enormous ‘economic power’ capable of transforming all the socio-economic-political structures and reconstitute them to suit the aspirations of the owners of capital.

We further declare in unequivocal terms since the capital is created by the collective labor of the people as a whole it should be directly owned by the people and then only the people would secure equal ‘Economic power’ and requisite ‘Fundamental Economic Rights’ with which they could establish an ‘Ideal Society’ in the way in which they desire.

In accordance with ‘Economic Justice’ when the capital is directly owned by the people, we declare that the people would naturally secure what we consider the best among the ‘Fundamental Economic Rights’ like ‘Right to live’, ‘Right to work’, ‘Right to Economic Equality’, ‘Right to economic liberty’, ‘Right to Economic Security’, ‘Right to participate in the management’, ‘Right to capital creation’, ‘Right to live with fraternity’, and requisite ‘socio-economic-political rights to pursuit of decent happiness’

We further proclaim when the people secure the above mentioned ‘fundamental rights’ they would succeed ultimately to establish an Ideal Society or Just Society for which they were tirelessly striving in transforming one form of society into another since the dawn of civilization, and to execute their noble concept of ‘One World, One Government, and One Humanity’ and in the end the people would be victorious in choosing what form of ‘Economic System’ that would be the best of all other systems for the establishment of an Ideal Society for which they would secure all requisite authorities of Natural laws that bestow on them.

1. Emergence of Economic Systems:

Different economic systems had emerged on the horizon of the history of mankind whenever different kinds of ‘Capital Ownership’ sprang up. Especially capitalism and socialism emerged after industrial revolution on the determinant factor of ‘capital ownership’. Generally in all economic systems ‘the ownership of capital’ forms the ‘basic structure’ of a society on which the fabrics of super structure of society are determined. The super structure usually exhibits the qualitative fabrics of society such as religion, culture, education, laws, customs and conventions etc. which are determined according to the aspirations of the owners of capital. In short the social elements are dependent factors of capital ownership.

During the turbulent period of 1750s when Industrial Revolution burst upon the England and other European countries it introduced gigantic machines – a kind of capital – in the factory system of production of goods and services. It engulfed the mankind like huge deluge and tossed the world societies and changed each and every super structural elements of society in such a manner not to even to trace out their originality. We, the people, at that period were deeply perplexed and confused what to do as we were in the vicinity of utter economic ignorance.

2. Two Economic Affidavits:

During Industrial Revolution the economic environments in the factory system was not only in muddle but also demoralizing the societies. No one had any knowledge how the economy was operating and how should it be operated. Everyone was expecting for the worst to come. Whole Europe was plunged into utter ignorance. At that crucial period of time it was Adam Smith, the Father of Economics, published his famous book ‘An enquiry into the Nature and Cause of the Wealth of Nations’ in 1776.

3. Economic Affidavit of Adam Smith: In his book Adam Smith spelt out an ‘Economic Affidavit’ solemnly and sincerely that if we, the people, entrusted our capital to a few capitalists in the name of ‘Capitalism’ (Individualism), they would not only change even the sand into gold but also drive the mankind to march towards an ‘Ideal Society’ by modernizing production potentialities with the help of scientific technologies and division of labor. Completely ignoring the working class who constitutes the society, Adam Smith concentered and focused his interest on a few capitalists and advocated that they without the interference of State would accumulate wealth of nations with the help of division of labor using modern machines and assured that the few independent capitalists would moreover create a favorable climate for the establishment of Ideal Society by increasing production many folds. Adam Smith completely neglected the equitable distribution of wealth to the mass working class. He linked the establishment of an ideal society with the mass production but not equitable distribution of wealth. Thus he misguided the whole world convincingly and decisively for a long period during which the working class was thrown into appalling poverty and horrible living hood.

Ricardo and Malthus, drawing he thread of arguments from the wisdom of Adam Smith, eloquently presented their views in favor of a few capitalists and equally convinced the people to surrender their capital in the possession of capitalists who would solve all the socioeconomic problems of mankind. Thus when the people entrusted their capital in the hands of a few capitalists a ‘Capitalistic Mode of Production’ emerged with strong magnitudes in England and some other European countries. This capitalistic mode of production, shattering hitherto existing highly valuable cultures and customs of people, created a complex and conflicting, and highly demoralizing ‘Capitalistic Society’.

The newly emerged ‘capitalistic Society’ forced the social elements such as law, art, culture, customs, religion, education and other economic and political rights and liberties to work for the benefit and security of a few capitalists because on their welfare the welfare of mass working class was depending on. The capitalistic mode of production converted the ‘Right to live’ of mass working class into a dependent factor of the security of the capitalist class who owned the capital and modern factories. This was because if a capitalist collapsed with his factory, the livelihood of the workers working in that factory would also collapse. So all the social elements ranging from culture to human liberty had to work for the security of a few capitalists. Thus the Ideal Society which the people dreamt for long span of time became a myth and mirage. In the capitalistic mode of production the Ideal Society was meant by ‘Capitalistic Society’ representing a few capitalists.

4. Counter Economic Affidavit of Karl Marx:

Having abundant flow of sympathy on the exploited mass working class and endless stream of hatred on the capitalists who caused for the appalling poverty of workers the mentally and morally agitated Karl Marx and Engels declared a ‘Counter Affidavit’ in 1848 in their ‘Communist Manifesto’ and Karl Marx alone in 1867 in his magnum opus the Das Capital. In their counter affidavit they advocated that if We, the people, forfeited our capital from the few capitalists with the help of Bolsheviks (communists) and entrusted the capital in the hands of the ‘State’ under the control of ‘Proletariat Dictatorship’, that the ‘State’ would lead us ‘Towards an Ideal Society’ and establish ‘One World’.* Believing their ‘Counter Affidavit’ word by word, in the October Revolution of 1917 we forfeited our capital from the few capitalists and handed over it to the trustworthy of the ‘State’. The State introduced a ‘Socialistic mode of production’ and on the basis of this, a fearful and subjugating ‘Socialistic Society’ emerged. The working class was engulfed with awe and fearsome and terribly perplexed on the outcome of the ‘Revolution’ and utterly disappointed for not even tracing any hope of achieving ‘Ideal Society’ which their Bolshevik masters promised during the ‘Revolution’.

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*In the words of Karl Marx : “ In a higher phase of communist society, after the enslaving subordination of the individual to the division of labor, and therewith also the antithesis between mental and physical labor has vanished; after labor has become not only a means of life but life’s prime want; after the productive forces have also increased with the all-round development of the individual, and all the springs of cooperative wealth flow abundantly – only then can the narrow horizon of bourgeois right be crossed in its entirety and society inscribe in its banners : From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs!”

– Marx(1875), pp 21-23

Karl Marx and Engels were not alive at that time of October Revolution. They were great champions for working class and ‘buts’ about it. They worried wept for working class, they suffered for working class, they sacrificed everything for the working class, and above all they were exiled, especially Karl Marx, from country to country for the cause of working class, and they really wanted to see the working class of all the countries in an ‘Ideal Society’. But the ‘October Revolution’ in Russia proved that their ‘Theory and Practice’ did not coordinate with each other and did not function in harmony. There was something wrong in the ‘Theory and practice’ which resulted in utter collapse of Socialism at the end process. What was the fault that penetrated for its collapse?

I have same streak of opinion in respect of Adam Smith and Malthus as well. I believe when they advocated that we, the people, should entrust our capital in the possession of few capitalists, they believed that the capitalists would not exploit the working class. But when their theories put into practice it was the selfish capitalists who manipulated their theories as convenient and convincing tools to exploit the mass working class. It was the capitalists who portrayed the theories in a darkest dark when they put them in practice because of their selfish motives. In other words there was unbridgeable disparity ( a deep wide chasm) between the theory and practice which the capitalists utilized it to fulfill their selfish motive of maximization of profit in exploiting the mass working class. What was the terrible fault that was penetrating here also?

Though the original proponents of capitalistic and socialistic theories were not enemies of working class, the executors of these theories, the capitalists on one hand and the ‘State’ on the other hand misled the working class for their selfish motives. The primary fault was that we, the people, instead of retaining the capital with us, separating ourselves into two diametrically opposite poles, surrendered our capital to a few capitalists in West European and North American countries and to ‘State’ in Russia, China and other East European countries.

The inherent contradictions that deeply and widely penetrated in the theories and practices of the two economic systems originated a fierce vicious spiral and exploded like a ‘Big Bang’ and scattered away violently but suddenly all the socio-economic problems throughout the world like inextinguishable fire balls. Instead of establishing an ‘Ideal Society’ these two systems, even after a prolonged period of experiments, have pushed the mankind at the verge of nuclear holocaust and wide spread day – to-day terrorism.

5. Democrism – People’s Direct Ownership of Capital:

As long as more than 200 years, Capitalism had left no avenues unexplored to establish an Ideal Society but disastrously collapsed during 1930s throughout the world due to the pressure of its own weight of self contradictions and brutal ambition of maximization of profit. On the same footing, Communism too after exerting all methods of cruel tortures (Stalin’s roughshod treatment of the kulaks) in the name of ‘Proletariat Dictatorship’ for nearly 75 destroyed itself in 1992 in its own breeding place. As both the systems are now struggling for their own survival, they have now decided to end the ‘cold war’ between them. Since the both the systems pushed us into great disappointments and they did not effective economic techniques to solve our economic problems in accordance with ‘Economic Justice’, we, the people, hereby declare to forfeit our own capital both from the capitalists and the ‘State’ and retain it under our direct ownership in peaceful manner or by force if necessity demands and create a ‘new economic system’ known as ‘Democrism’ on the basis of people’s Direct Ownership of Capital and we, further declare the Natural Laws have entrusted upon us all executive powers to do so as our birth right.

On the People’s Direct Ownership of Capital a just economic system known as ‘Democrism’ will in the world and it will provide us ‘Democratic Mode of Production’ which is an inevitable must for the establishment of an ‘Ideal or Just Society’. I venture to say in short,

“Capitalism is popular and popularly defective;

Socialism is destructive and destructively popular;

Democrism is justifiable and justifiably inevitable.”

Whatever race we relate to, whatever language we speak to, whatever color we cover to, whatever religion we follow to, whatever nation we belong to, we are always being influenced by justice and by its emphatic authority of supremacy. The laws may be in transient from time to time, and vary from country to country, but the concept of justice remains illuminant everywhere. We want justice, only the justice and nothing but the justice. Throughout the long passage of history we have honored justice; we have kept in high esteem the men of justice right from king Solomon to Gandhiji . We have unshakable faith that justice is perpetual and ever pervading. We have always fought for justice and it has united us without any discrimination. In his book ‘Anatomy of Liberty’, William O. Douglas, the Justice to the United States Supreme Court, says this truth in every respect as follows:

“The appetite for justice is indeed a cementing influence amon all races, whatever language they speak, whatever of their skin”

-Douglas,William O. “Anatomy of Liberty” (p: xxiv) : (1965)

The universal fact is that if there is justice there will be harmony and immortality. The scientific facts are immortal because they are based on experimental truths. On the other hand if the socio-economic-political principles want to be immortal they should based on justice, only the justice and nothing but justice and perhaps on natural justice. The capitalistic and socialistic principles lack application of justice and therefore they struggle vainly to solve our life problems and they are marching towards their last destiny – the inevitable grave yard. Keeping the above facts in mind I have with utmost care and concern formulated the economic principles on the natural justice in the name of ‘DEMOCRISM’ which will secure universal acceptability. The genesis of all natural justices is to uphold ‘People’s Direct Ownership of Capital’ for which we have to forfeit our capital from the few capitalists and the ‘State’. Why?

“People’s Direct Ownership of Capital : Why do we want?”

1. Denying the natural justice of ‘Right to live’ by Capitalism and Socialism: (Capital promotes and intensifies war)

We, the people of all the countries, unanimously **** intensely the wars which germinate in any form or for any cause. Naturally we are peace loving people. Despite our strong protests the wars have been fought all over the world and billions and billions of innocent people having no association with the war, have been brutally killed and massacred and the skeletons of these people have been heaped like mountains in graveyards. What cause underlies for these wars? The answer is simply one word – ‘the capital’. It is the ‘Ownership of Capital’ by a few capitalists or the ‘State’ that attributes for all kinds of war that negates one’s ‘Right to live’ in the name of patriotism in particular.

Let us for time being set aside the wars fought before Industrial Revolution. The factory system facilitated for the production of ‘weapons of mass destruction’ that can be employed from the land, from the ocean and from the air. The whole world turned into open battle field for the nuclear bombs, ballistic missiles, supersonic jets, various kinds of military rockets and the military satellites orbiting the earth. Whatever might be the causes of First and Second World Wars, but their consequences were horrible that pushed the mankind to the very verge of its extinction from the earth planet. Why?

Wars before and after Industrial Revolution: Before the industrialization the wars were fought on a particular battle fields and between two hostile warriors only. The range of destruction was very narrow and limited in coverage because the warriors used only spears and swords. The weapons were manufactured in cottage industries or by the warriors themselves. Natural boundaries like mountains, rivers, oceans and great deserts prevented the enemies to enter into a independent country.

After industrial revolution, weapons of mass destruction were produced with the help of highly sophisticated technologies with help of huge capital in factories owned by a few capitalists and the ‘State’. The natural bounties disappeared and the whole world became open battle field. These weapons were maneuvered only by the highly skilled technocrats. The technocrats used these weapons on the common innocent people to terrorize the enemy-governments to surrender immediately. For example, in World War II USA used nuclear atom bombs to bombard on millions of Japanese civilians and terrorized the government to surrender without fighting in the battle field. Nowadays the battle fields are disappeared and the whole world has become open battle field in the face of mighty ballistic missiles and nuclear atom bombs. They can be produced only with the help of scientists and huge capital owned by the ‘State’ and a ‘few capitalists’. As long as the capital is owned by the ‘State’ and ‘few capitalists’ we cannot escape from nuclear holocaust. Originally Capital was created by the working class to assist them to increase their productivity of consumption goods. As soon as the capital went into the illegal ownership of ‘State’ and ‘Capitalists’ it was used for the production of mass destructive weapons. If we scrutinize the expenditure of the world governments we can detect that a large portion of government expenditure has been allocated for ‘military up gradation’ than for the ‘promotion of education’ and ‘elimination of poverty’.

2. ECONOMIC THEORY OF WAR :

Firstly “if the accumulation of destructive capital increases the temptation for war will increase and vice versa”. The destructive capital means the capital that is used for the production of destructive weapons used by military forces. Secondly the difference in economic ideology of a country prompts it to increase its military power to show its ideological success over the other country and spread its ideology over other countries through war. For example USA and Russia used war as a weapon to spread their capitalistic and socialistic ideologies over other countries. The pages of recent past history will illustrate the fact and also the reason for accumulation of nuclear weapons and other variety of scientific weapons of mass destruction. Thirdly on the globalization of world economy the capitalist rich countries invest huge volume of their excessive capital in poor and developing countries. In order to protect their huge capital from nationalization by the beneficiary countries a mighty military force is required by the investing countries. For instance the American war and threatening of war over Arabian countries to protect her huge capital invested in exploration of petrol and fuel industries. Now American capitalists are investing billion and billions of dollar in I T industries of India and other developing countries. The American capitalists believe that they can protect their capital by their country’s military power. If any country try to nationalize these industries it will result in war. Fourthly the over production of industrial goods by rich countries force them to dump their over production in poor countries through their military power.

Economic reason for two world wars : Virtually after Industrial Revolution in most of the European countries the capital was owned by a few individuals. Since the very aim of capitalism was ‘maximization of profit’ the workers were paid less and it resulted in deficiency of effective demand which caused for ‘over production’. These European countries occupied the poor countries by their military power and converted them as their ‘political colonies’ and with the concept of ‘Free Trade’, they dumped their over-production in the colonies and also exploited the wealth of the colonies. India was the notorious example for that.

With the help of exploited wealth these ‘mother countries’ strengthened mainly their military power. The safety and security of the other ‘Dictatorial European countries’ which had ‘State or less individual Ownership of Capital’ were in jeopardy and unprotected in front of the mighty capitalist countries. On detection of the geographical track these countries found that there were no countries in the world to occupy them as their colonies for exploitation in order to increase their wealth and thereby their military power. These lately wakened dictatorial countries sniffed the fact that their ‘political and military supremacy’ would be pulled down rapidly on the downward track. In order to surpass the supremacy of the Capitalistic European Countries the ‘Dictatorial European Countries, found no other alternative except ‘war’ on the Capitalistic European Countries and on their colonies all over the world. The ‘lust for supremacy’ over the other countries forced them to wage two world wars. Napoleon and ****** waged war against all of Europe because for the sake of supremacy.

Ayn Rand emphatically points out the genesis for the two world wars in his book ‘Capitalism’ as follows:

“……World War I was started by monarchist Germany and Czarist Russia,

who dragged in their freer allies. World War II was started by alliance of

‘Nazi’ Germany with the Soviet Russia and their attack on Polland” *

- Rand Ayn :“Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal” (New American Library-1967) p:37

In this nuclear age we witness a political and economic turbulence all over the world for a mad race for military equilibrium and economic supremacy. Both the Capitalism and Socialism have no blue-print to terminate the opportunity for Third World War. The rich capitalist and socialist countries want to become richer and richer by pushing the vast majority of poor countries to become poorer and poorer as per World Economic Reports. At present the silent turbulence boiling in the poor countries will burst into a Third World War which will be fought between the rich northern countries and the poor southern countries of the world and result in nuclear holocaust. That is why the USA is very keen on preventing the proliferation of nuclear technology among the southern countries using its military might. The only way left for the mankind to stop the flow of ever threatening danger of nuclear war is the execution of economic equality by rich countries in extending their helping hand to poor countries to pull them up from poverty and to reduce the economic imbalance between rich and poor. The capitalist countries will not permit the economic equality within and without but fight for upholding their economic supremacy which will be the ultimate cause for the Third World War.

We, the people, therefore, have no other alternative except to forfeit our capital from the capitalists and the ‘State’ and retain it under our ‘Direct Ownership’ to coordinate with the command of Natural Laws to save the mankind.

2.1. Consequences of World wars and destructive capital:

The First World War was fought between 1914 and 1918. During the span of 4 years the war was fought violently 120 million seconds. Nearly 48 million people (including soldiers) were dead and wounded.* In other words in every 10 seconds 4 people were killed either dead or wounded.

· Nehru, Jawaharlal : “Glimpses World History” : p.637

In the Second World War When the war was virtually approaching its end, on 6th August, 1945 an Atom bomb by name ‘Little Boy’ – a new war machine that the mankind hitherto never experienced – was dropped on Hiroshima. With in 10 seconds one million innocent people were killed. The first world war took 10 seconds to kill 4 people but the second world war, at its end, took 10 seconds to kill one million innocent people. The annihilation depends on the density of population of a city on which an atom bomb drops on. The Super Powers like USA and Russia, have now heaped in their arsenal million times more powerful atom bombs than the one that was dropped on Hiroshima.

No doubt the atom bombs that dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were invented by the nuclear scientists. The billion dollar question is whether the scientists produced them with their bare hands or in cottage industries or in sophisticated industries created by huge capital. No capitalist will ever afford such huge capital for the production of weapons of mass destruction because their aim is always ‘maximization of profit’. Only the State can siphon huge capital for the production of atomic bombs only with the help scientists to threaten the other countries and to enjoy the status of ‘super powers’.

Though the atom bombs are the brain-children of atomic physicists the capital required to manufacture them is funded only by the governments secretly against the wishes of the people. As long as the capital is owned by the governments, irrespective of Socialist or Capitalist governments, they spend huge capital for the production of atom bombs in order to achieve military supremacy over other countries or to attain at least an equilibrium in military power. Extensively it is the hard-core radical politicians brain wash the people under the guise of ‘patriotism’, ‘National security’ and ‘National pride’ for the production of atom bombs and other ballistic weapons. Since most of the atomic scientists are the government scientists they have to produce atom bombs at the insistence of governments in the name of national security.

“In 1943 the Manhatten Project Laboratory at Los Alamos, New Mexico, with

J.Robert Oppenheimer as its director, was assigned the task of developing an

atom bomb. The first test at Alamogordo on July 16, 1945, was an outstanding

success (the desert sand was fused to glass for hundreds of yards around the

the site). In August two atom bombs were dropped on Japan”.

“Hiroshima inaugurated not only a new age of science but a new kind of scientists

-the government servants whose knowledge and talent are an important part of the

national arsenal. Furthermore, the scientists were now much more conscious of their

social position and responsibilities. This was true in all advanced industrial countries,

put particularly in the United States and the Soviet Union. Presumably, Soviet

scientists were satisfied to follow the dictates of government leaders, but after World

War II, Oppenheimer and other American scientists entered into a great debate over

the human, political and social implications of atomic science and a profound searching of their own consciences. Oppenheimer resisted the building of the hydrogen bomb – a much more devastating weapon than the bombs used against Japan – in the early

1950’s, and he made important enemies. When Oppenheimer’s security clearance was

withdrawn in 1954, a great outcry from his colleagues expressed more than personal

indignation. The Frankenstein myth appeared to be true, and the monster had locked

the scientist out of his own laboratory. Certain branches of scientific research are not

only secret today, they are expensive secrets; the cyclotrons and reactors of the 1960’s

are far beyond the means of any university or other institution without government support”.*

( * – Cantor, Norman F. – “Western Civilization : Its Genesis and Destiny” III –1970; pp:528-529)

I can arrive two conclusions from deducing the above historical facts:

Firstly, we have to free the atomic scientists from the clutches of governments.

Secondly, we have to forfeit our capital from the hands of governments and to keep it under our own control and possession.

Unless we, the people, forfeit our own capital from the governments and restore ‘people’s direct ownership of capital’ we could not prevent the governments from the mad race for producing ‘weapons of mass destruction’ ranging from AK-47 to atom bombs (of 20,000 megaton attack)

When we pay the tax-money to the governments, we intend tacitly that they would spend it to solve our poverty; but they do not do so. In a speech on April 16, 1953, President Eisenhower said :

Every gun is fired, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed …

The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than thirty cities…… We pay for a single fighter with a half million bushels of wheat. We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than eight thousand people…………

This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron…….”

Professor Dallas W. Smythe of Illinois said, “Billions for defense but not a cent for socialism. It is not socialism to have the government spend 50 billion dollars for weapons; it would be socialism if the government spent the same amount for education or for public works”.

When we entrusted our capital to the capitalist as well as the socialist governments we constituted a tacit ‘Economic Contract’ with governments. The first and foremost element of the ‘Economic Contract’ was that the governments should utilize our capital to solve our basic economic problems such as poverty, unemployment, economic disparity etc. But the governments in violation of the Economic Contract have spent our capital to destroy our own survival by engaging in the production of weapons- mass-destruction. The governments with the help of scientists produce variety of ballistic missiles and nuclear bombs and test them day in day out to display their scientific genius and military power to other governments. The accumulation of such deadly weapons have now pushed the mankind to the very verge of nuclear holocaust. We, the people of all the countries, therefore, want to recover our capital from the governments and to keep it under our own control and ownership to preserve a perpetual world peace, our birth right.

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“Little Boy” is the nick name given to the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945. It was Monday morning. Little Boy was dropped from the Enola Gay, one of the B-29 bombers that flew over Hiroshima on that day.

Little Boy

After being released, it took about a minute for Little Boy to reach the point of explosion. Little Boy exploded at approximately 8:15 a.m. (Japan Standard Time) when it reached an altitude of 2,000 ft above the building that is today called the “A-Bomb Dome.”

The July 24, 1995 issue of Newsweek writes:

“A bright light filled the plane,” wrote Lt. Col. Paul Tibbets, the pilot of the Enola Gay, the B-29 that dropped the first atomic bomb. “We turned back to look at Hiroshima. The city was hidden by that awful cloud…boiling up, mushrooming.” For a moment, no one spoke. Then everyone was talking. “Look at that! Look at that! Look at that!” exclaimed the co-pilot, Robert Lewis, pounding on Tibbets’s shoulder. Lewis said he could taste atomic fission; it tasted like lead. Then he turned away to write in his journal. “My God,” he asked himself, “what have we done?” (special report, “Hiroshima: August 6, 1945″)

note: Paul Tibbets was Colonel, not “Lt. Colonel,” when he was the pilot of the Enola ***.

The Little Boy generated an enormous amount of energy in terms of air pressure and heat. In addition, it generated a significant amount of radiation (Gamma ray and neutrons) that subsequently caused devastating human injuries.

The people who saw the Little Boy often say “We saw another sun in the sky when it exploded.” The heat and the light generated by the Little Boy were far stronger than bombs which they had seen before. When the heat wave reached ground level it burnt all before it including people.

The strong wind generated by the bomb destroyed most of the houses and buildings within a 1.5 miles radius. When the wind reached the mountains, it was reflected and again hit the people in the city center. The wind generated by Little Boy caused the most serious damage to the city and people.

The radiation generated by the bomb caused long-term problems to those affected. Many people died within the first few months and many more in subsequent years because of radiation exposure. Some people had genetic problems which sometimes resulted in having malformed babies or being unable to have children.

It is believed that more than 140,000 people died by the end of the year. They were citizens including students, soldiers and Koreans who worked in factories within the city. The total number of people who have died due to the bomb is estimated to be 200,000.

The A-Bombs used over Japan; Little Boy (left) and Fat Man (right)

Just three days after the bomb was dropped to Hiroshima, the second atomic bomb called “Fat Man” was dropped to Nagasaki. Though the amount of energy generated by the bomb dropped to Nagasaki was significantly larger than that of the Little Boy, the damage given to the city was slighter than that given to Hiroshima due to the geographic structure of the city. It is estimated that approximately 70,000 people died by the end of the year because of the bombing.

We strongly believe that the world must learn about weapons of total destruction. We hope that the information presented here will help you understand the pain and devastation that nuclear weapons can cause. We don’t want you to just feel sorry for the people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the war inflicted untold pain and suffering on many people in Asia and the Pacific. Rather we want you to work with us to ensure that all of us can live in a safe world.

We hope this document helps you understand what it was, what it means and what we have to do.

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2.2 The cause for dropping atom-bomb on Japan:

There are two theories for dropping atom bomb on Japan. The first is to take retaliation on Japan for its attack on Pearl Harbor. The second is to prevent Socialist Russia to capture Japan. The first theory do not sound reasonable because :

Hitler committed ******* on 30th April, 1945. Immediately on 7th May the Germans agreed to unconditional surrender. Moreover Mussolini and his mistress were killed on April by anti-Fascist Italian partisans. Japan’s position was now completely helpless, and the emperor supported a party in the Japanese government that wished to seek a negotiated peace. The second world war was more or less approaching to its end.

The second theory sounds well because :

On 16th July 1945 President Harry S. Truman - who had assumed office on Roosevelt’s death on 12th April, – was informed that an atom bomb had been successfully tested in New Mexico. The U.S. military found that no other weapon was so awful in destructive power as that of the atom bomb.

At the same time the military forces of Socialist Russia were rapidly advancing towards Japan – the border country of Socialist Russia – to capture it.

The Capitalist America was now in great distress that the Socialist Russia would not only capture Japan but also convert it a Socialist state. To uphold its supremacy America thought that it had no other choice except to execute two things:

1. to prevent immediately the invasion of Socialist Russia on Japan;

2. Instead, it had to capture Japan without sacrificing any more lives of American soldiers in the invasion of Japan.

In order to fulfill the above aims, the Capitalist America was left with only one option that was to use the awful new weapon – the atom bomb – on the civilians to force Japan to immediate surrender. Persuaded by the military strategy, Truman decided to use the bomb and it was dropped on the Japanese city Hiroshima on 6th August, 1945. About 80,000 civilians were killed immediately. Nearly 200,000 died later of radiation or were maimed for life.On the sudden turn of events, Soviet Russia sensed that Japan would go out its hand though it was within its reach. So two days later, on 8th August, Russia declared war on Japan and crossed the Manchurian frontier as the Japanese army remained committed to a fight to the finish.

Since there was a race for supremacy between Socialist Russia and Capitalist America to capture Japan and moreover Russian army crossed the Manchurian frontier, the Capitalist America was forced to act swiftly. So, a second atom bomb – Fat Man – was dropped on Nagasaki on 9th August, 1945 by Capitalist America. Nearly 70,000 civilians died immediately. The following day the Japanese government offered to surrender. On 14th August the terms laid down at Potsdam were accepted and the Second World War was over.

The truth is still solid and sound that the atom bombs were dropped on Japanese cities not because Japan would succeed in the second World War but because the governments of Capitalist America and Socialist Russia were arrogantly desirous to show their supremacy over the other as their economic systems were quite contradictory with each other. Both Capitalism and Communism wanted to prove that it was their system that ultimately led the Second World War towards victory. This ideological conflict between the America and Russia, at the end of the war, resulted in nuclear holocaust of Japan.

There is no assurance to the people of all countries that another nuclear war will not burst out due to the ideological conflicts between the countries or to show their supremacy or for some other reasons the time will decide. Not only America and Russia but all the nuclear countries do not now wish either to destroy all their nuclear weapons or dismantle the industries which produce such weapons of mass destruction. Under these circumstances and ground realities how can we believe and console ourselves that yet another nuclear war will not threaten mankind and cause to vanish the very existence of mankind on the earth. So, we, the people of all the countries, declare to forfeit our capital from the few capitalists and the State and to keep it with ourselves. When we have ‘direct ownership of capital’ we will not allow our capital for the production of nuclear weapons or any other weapons of mass destruction.

3. Economic Justice in jeopardy and in peril:

When we handed over our capital to a few capitalists, we were under strong presumption, that they would in certain sense, solve at least our basic problems of poverty and unemployment. On the contrary, since the very basic aim of capitalists is ‘maximization of profit’ they execute all kinds of nefarious designs to exploit the laborers and treat them like other business commodities. So with the enrichment of new technologies the capitalists always intend to replace the workers or minimize the labor force by sophisticated machines. The capitalists never show any interest to promote the economic justice in solving the human problems like poverty, unemployment, economic inequality, unequal distribution of income and wealth etc.

But now the capitalists in some way or other have promoted the welfare of society only by way of promoting their own self interest. In other words if and only if the capitalists are assured that their self interest would be promoted then alone they will allow the betterment of welfare of other members of society. The welfare of huge majority of society is always considered to be a ‘dependent factor of a few capitalists’ in the system of private ownership of capital.

In other words the Welfare of Society (WoS) operates as ‘function of Interest of Capitalists (IoC)’. We can write it as

WoS = f(IoC) ……………. 1

The Interest of Capitalists, in turn, depends on their ‘Maximization of Profit (Max o P). So the equation becomes

IoC = f(Max o P) ……………. 2

The Maximization of Profit (Max o P) by the capitalists results in the ‘Exploitation of Working class’ (EoW). It may written as

Max o P = f(EoW) ……………. 3

The Exploitation of Working class (EoW) creates ‘Maldistribution of National Income’ (Md o NI).

EoW = f(Md o NI) …………….. 4

The degree of maldistribution of national income exposes how the workers are exploited in a country. Generally speaking in most of the countries the top 10% of population enjoys 80% of the national wealth and only just 20% of national wealth is distributed to a vast majority of 90% of population. The maldistribution of national income has always kept the vast majority of people to suffer with low purchasing power and in due course it results in over production. Due to over production the producers are forced to reduce their volume of production and level of employment. On finding the disequilibrium that the goods are not consumed at the rate at which they are produced the producers are forced to close their industries. The very aim of capitalists, the maximization of profit, not only crushes them but also the whole society. Therefore, the private ownership of capital will be dangerous to the whole society and the national capital capital should be equally distributed among the people for the welfare of the mankind. So, Betrand Russel says:

“Private ownership of land and capital is not defensible on the groundsof justice or on the grounds that is economical way of producing what the community needs”

– Russel, Bertrand : “Political Ideals” (p ; 35)

Equally the Marxian theory of “State Ownership of Capital” lacks perfection and threatens human rights. Marxian theory is formed on adamant and inflexible principle and it will not coordinate with the changing world conditions. It preaches a kind of ‘economic fundamentalism’ which wants the elements of society to remain in rigidity for ever. So Loucks rightly states:

“Errors in the theoretical of Marxian thought are so serious and so basic that they cannot be corrected by interpreting or modernizing Marx not can they be considered superficial”

Loucks : “Comparative Economic Systems” ( p : 166)4.

Poverty in the midst of plenty:

We, the people of all the countries, have accumulated capital more than enough and the goods that could be produced with the help of that capital is more than adequate to eradicate poverty in the world. The statistics of “World Development Report – 1991” substantiate that if we distribute the goods produced equally among the people of all the countries, each one would receive the goods approximately worth of Rs.300 per day, which is more than enough for one’s needs. But in contrary with this fact, two third of world population is now subjected to appalling poverty and suffering with hunger and various diseases for want of adequate notorious food.

The poverty prevails not only between the countries but also within the countries irrespective of whether the country is developed or developing. As there is darkness below the burning candle so is the poverty even in the affluent society due to maldistribution of income and wealth. John Meynard Keynes criticizes the capitalistic system with this ever prevailing paradoxical element of “poverty in the midst of plenty”. Since the capitalism do not know how to distribute income and wealth equally among the people, the capitalists have no moral right or legal right to keep our capital with themselves. They have to honestly return us our capital and we know how to solve our problems under ‘people’s direct ownership of capital’.5.

Absence of Right to Live:

Throughout the length and breadth of the world we can notice the youth both in rural and urban areas bearing great agony in their eyes, having no value for their education are wandering desperately on the streets in seeking employment. The unemployment has pushed them to strip away their dignity, self respect and equal status among others not only in the society but also in their own family. Everywhere they are treated as insignificant trivial and above all less than a human being. In the economic systems, both in capitalism and socialism, they feel that they have deprived of the possession of ‘Right to Live’ at all.

6. Origin of terrorism and economic crimes:

It is partly true that unemployment generates economic insecurity among the youth. But by and large it victimizes the youth an easy prey to drug addiction, trafficking, terrorism, and other socio-economic evils.

The universal accepted fact is that capitalism cannot solve unemployment. The function of capitalism is such that if we want to adhere with capitalism we have to live with unemployment at certain level. The advocates of capitalism have now proved that full-employment in capitalism is only a myth and mirage. Hence as long as capitalism is prevailing in the world, so long as the socio-economic evils will also be pervading in the world as its by products and they will be deteriorating all the well-nurtured cultural fabrics of society. If we want capitalism, we have to learn to live with terrorism and other socio-economic evils.

7. Economic Equality is a Mirage :

It is evident throughout the world, the economic inequality among the people not only within the country but also between the countries is going on widening with an accelerated momentum. In 1982 the per capita income of developed countries in average was 42 times more than that of developing countries like India and China, but the gap was still widening 56 times in 1989. As the gap is going on increasing the poor countries are becoming still poorer and rich countries are more richer. It is natural not only among the people but also among the countries to develop strong feeling of jealousy and hatred, and an impression of inferiority complex and a sentiment of economic slavery. In the complex and confused modern economic systems, the concept and reality of ‘economic equality’ is rushing over beyond the orbit of one’s reach. In this context, our strategic fiscal and monetary policies are reducing to be insignificant to face the challenges. Hence Jawaharlal Nehru rightly blames the capitalistic system of economy for the economic equality:

“Normally speaking it may be said that the forces of a capitalist society, if left unchecked, tend to make the rich, the richer and the poor, the poorer, and thus increase the gap between them”

- Nehru, Jawaharlal : “The Years of Power” (1960) p;294

It would be faulty conclusion that the economic inequality is inseparable function of capitalism alone; even in communist countries we can notice wide economic disparities among the people. Prof.P.T.Baur states:

“….. But there are evident wide differences in income in communist countries after decades of communist rule. And in Soviet Union (a country often thought to be dedicated to the removal of economic differences), the differences in income and living standards are quite as pronounced as in some market oriented societies and this after more than half a century of mass coercion”.*

-* Baur, P.T. : “The Grail of Equality”

The economic equality is one the three basic necessities of ‘Equality, Liberty and Fraternity’ for the establishment of an Ideal Society. But neither capitalism nor communism do not know any effective economic technique to ensure us ‘economic equality’. Hence I venture to say it is futile to allow our capital to remain in possession of some individual capitalists or the State.

8. No Right to Work :

Invariably the ‘Declaration of Independence’ of all the countries proclaim that man has ‘Right to Live’. On the introduction of ‘Division of Labor’ in the modern production system, no one can produce all the goods that require even to lead a very simple life, or a single whole commodity one needs.

On the Division of Labor, everyone is trained to produce only a part of a commodity for which he can receive his wage and with which he has to buy the necessary goods in the market to lead his life. Since a man cannot produce whatever he wants to live, his ‘Right to Live’ solely depends upon his ‘Right to Work’. But no Constitution of any country is powerful enough to provide ‘Right to Work’ as one of the ‘Fundamental Rights’ because the economic systems that the countries pursue are basically defective and incompetent to face the economic challenges. In the absence of ‘Right to Work’ irrespective of what kind of economic system a country follows, the employers never consider man as a man and not even as a commodity. On the other hand they treat man as a ‘rental commodity’ that can be engaged by paying wages as ‘rent’. The defect of economic systems have reduced man and humiliated him as mean and ignoble thing. With full of depression in heart, P.A.Samuelson exhibits the real condition of man as follows:

Since slavery was abolished, human earning power is forbidden by law

to be capitalized. A man is not even free sell himself; he must rent himself at a wage” *

-* Samuelson, P.A. : “Economics” (p : 52)

9.Absence of Stable Just Price :

Universally in all economic systems – whether it is market oriented economy or State controlled economy – the prices in the market are behaving erratically and disorderly. Especially the prices of consumption goods of poor people are always enhancing. But the income of poor people is not increasing as much as the increment of price of their consumption goods. Consequently this economic phenomenon is horribly crushing the purchasing power of the poor. Hence the fact is universally accepted that ‘the poor people are born in poverty, live in poverty and die in poverty’ Whenever the governments declare that they have contained or reduced the rate of inflation it seems always to the benefit of the rich. The economic systems, existing now, do not know any economic techniques to sustain a just price level at stable for the welfare of the vast majority poor.

10. Injustice to Working Class:

In Jerusalem I heard the Israeli Supreme Court say : “It is better that ten guilty persons be acquitted than that one innocent person be convicted”.

This legal justice should not be confined only to the courts of justice but it should be equally extended to govern both the economic justice and economic systems. The economic systems, on the contrary, conveniently permit the economic criminals to escape from punishment and in turn punish the innocent workers who perform their social duty.

The utmost duty of a worker is to produce socially needed goods and services only; but it is not the duty of the worker to bear the responsibility whether the goods and services he produced are sold out. On the other hand it is the duty of the consumers to buy the goods and services that are produced for their consumption at a just price and at the rate at which the goods and services are produced for them.

On the contrary, the consumers, as a whole, behave in the market, guided by their erratic psychological factors, create time lags in purchasing the goods that are produced for their consumption and sometimes neglect the goods to buy at all. These negative and duly non-responsive factors affect the economy severely and ultimately result in the stagnation of goods in the markets. Due to the stagnation of goods in the market an equal volume of goods stagnated are not produced in the subsequent round of production. On the reduction of production of goods the workers who have fulfilled ‘the production – duty’ of the economy, have to lose their employment. The unemployment of a worker not only affects his ‘Right to Live’ but also of the whole family that depends on him. The unemployment of a worker ruins the education of his children, their future ambition in life and their morality and social dignity and their future economic security.

The present economic systems are not competent and efficient enough to secure and save the “Right to live” of the workers who have honestly accomplished their ‘production-duty’ of the economy.

To strengthen my argument I like to quote the words of Prof. Mrs. Joan Robinson :

It is true, with adequate organization there need be no unemployment … There is always something useful that can be done even with a man’s bare hands”*

*– Prof. Mrs. Joan Robinson : “Economic Philosophy” (p : 114)

Joan Robinson too finds fault on the economic systems for wide range of unemployment; in other words, the economic systems that we pursue now are the primary reasons for the failure to provide “Right to Live” to the workers throughout the world. In the present economic systems and economic conditions ‘employment’ and ‘Right to Live’ are synonymous or just the same.

What is the basic cause, today, throughout the world, for billions of youth are crushed by the burden of unemployment? It is the cause :

“Every person, only up to the standard of education and technical training that the society has offered to him, can produce socially needed goods with his bare hands or with the help of small and simple capital that he can afford by himself and thus create ‘self-employment’ opportunities and secure right to live by himself. The creation of self-employment creates an expectation in the mind of the of the worker that the society i.e. the consumers should behave with a sense of ‘economic responsibility’ by consuming the goods at the rate at which he produces, at a reasonable price to sustain the livelihood of the worker. But every self-employed youth knows that the ‘economic responsibility’ is absolutely lacking in the minds of consumers. What is deeply rooted in the minds of unemployed youth is ‘a fear about the future’ that the consumers or the society that he belongs to would not perpetually and automatically accept the goods at a reasonable price that he produces by ‘self-employment’. The ‘fear about the future’ in the minds of the youth who wants to venture in ‘self-employment’ is reasonably justifiable. Due to ‘fear on the future’ the unemployed youth are not venturing in self-employment competing with the highly sophisticated industries. It is then whose fault if the youth are unemployed? The present economic systems have no economic techniques or ‘action programs’ to evacuate the ‘fear of the future’ in the minds of the unemployed youth and to induce ‘economic responsibility’ in the minds of society to save the ‘self-employed’ youth from the competition of well-organized industries.

I have to point out it is the fault of the economic systems for the cause of unemployment and moreover I wish to state that the capitalists and equally the governments should not lay blame on the ‘fate’ of the youth for their unemployment. On the other hand the capitalists and the governments are persistently blame the fate of the youth and try to escape from their ‘economic responsibility’. So we have no other alternative except to forfeit our capital from the them and retain it with ourselves as we know perfectly well how to solve our unemployment and other economic problems.

11.Economic Gambles:

The basic intention leading for the invention of money is it should be used as a ‘medium of exchange’ in buying and selling goods and services. On the contrary, our present economic systems have invariably paved way for the money not only to be used as a ‘medium of exchange’ but also at a large extent as a ‘Medium of Economic Gambles’ throwing away the honesty and morality of societies to the winds. The multi-millionaires, today, have idly and futilely invested billions and billions of money in the stock markets as a medium of gambles uprooting the very noble function of money. The electronic media and the news papers extensively propagating the stock market indices for the benefit of the rich gamblers, the economic criminals, who want to earn quick and easy money with out shedding even a drop of sweat. The present economic systems have accepted this kind of economic gambles without any shyness.

In addition, in the cradles of civilization, especially in the places of sports and games like cricket stadium, Tennis courts, Football grounds, Boxing arenas billions and billions of money are set into circulation as a ‘medium of gambles’. With the help of the ‘capital-power’ the capitalists today have vigorously transformed the noble arts, skillful sports, beautiful games and wonderful cultures into easy-money-earning centers instead of promoting these symbols of civilization. The capitalists in the name of ‘promoters’ have developed strong hatred not only in the minds of ‘players’ but also in the minds of ‘audience’. This kind of economic gambles is now rapidly spreading like dangerous virus in all four corners of the world. For example, the ‘Statesman’ in its 10th October 1978 issue states as follows :

“Britain is a gambling nation. Nearly 94 percent of population indulge in an occasional flutter on races, at the gambling tables, on foot-ball pools or on a variety of other sports. 39 percent of all Britons are habitual gamblers. In 1977 an estimated $ 800 million were stated on races and gamblers. In 1977 an estimated $ 800 million were stated on races and other sports”. Instead of producing socially needed goods and services and creating employment opportunities, the capitalists are utilizing ‘our capital’ for economic gambles extensively and demoralizing our long cherished cultures and civilizations throughout the world.

The capitalists now adopt a new business strategy to exploit the consumers : ‘First kill the civilization and then sell the goods’. The capitalists know the consumers will become a easy prey for sexual exposition. So they in all their advertisements use ‘women in half ***** beauty’ to enchant consumers to buy their commodities. We know the capitalists are misusing ‘our capital’ to ‘sexually assault’ the consumers to maximize their profit at the cost of cultural destruction and spreading demoralization. With deep mental agony I like to state that millions of young women have now turned as *********** as a source of employment and the International Labor Organization (ILO) now recommends to accept prostitution as ‘flesh industry’ which contributes reasonable amount of foreign exchange for many countries.

12.Class distinction and failure of economic machinery :

In lieu of promoting fraternity among the people the present economic systems create various class distinctions such as 1. proletariat and capitalist, 2. consumer and producer, 3. savers and investors. The class distinction between proletariat and capitalist is always underlying at the bottom of strikes, lock outs and innumerable industrial disputes. The class distinction between ‘consumers and producers’ is attributable for the failure of determination of ‘just price’ in the market and for uneven distribution of goods among the people. The class distinction between ‘savers and investors’ is harmfully preventing the requisite acquisition of investment to eradicate poverty and unemployment expeditiously in the world. The present economic systems are full of contradictions without which they can not function. Our capital in the possession of few capitalists and the State is the root cause for all class distinctions. Once the capital comes under the ‘direct ownership of people’ all the class distinctions will disappear

13.Maximization of profit destroys morality of society:

In the present economic systems the industries project their ‘volume of profit’ as the ‘balance of judgment’ of their determination of ‘industrial success’ The industry which earns more profit is considered to be more successful. The mental attitude forces the capitalists even to destroy the natural environment extensively in order to produce goods cheaply. With the sole aim of maximization of profit, the capitalists have no even an iota of concern over the future welfare

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09 Apr 09 Avail of Top-notch Economics Homework Help on the Internet

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08 Apr 09 Depression 2008: Review of the Economy 2008-09 in India by Economic Advisory Council

INTRODUCTION

I remember that it was the mid of September 2008 when the clamorous news regarding the economic turbulence, emerging from US and encompassing the European countries, were capturing big space in the international media. Indian economists, government, leaders and even media were silent on the issue of apprehending the turmoil’s transition to Indian economy. They seemed not worried about the predicament prevailing abroad beyond Indian boundaries despite their being well aware of the economic contagium and the economic contagiousness among world economies especially in this globalization era. They were perhaps over confident on account of the rising inflation rate and the achieved appreciably high growth rate.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2008

As per the Economic Outlook issued in July 2008, the Economic Advisory Council (EAC) of the Indian Prime Minister was of the view that the Indian economy would be able to grow by 7.7 % in 2008 – 09. At that time, the Council had opined that while a large part of the sub-prime losses had been accounted for, further setbacks were possible in the months to come and conditions were unlikely to stabilize before early 2009. The outcome in the first half of 2008 – 09 was broadly along the lines expected by the Council in July. Not only this, but Finance Minister P. Chidambaram was so confident up to the last week of Oct. 2008 that he did not even slightly hesitate to declare at Sivaganga (Tamilnadu) on Oct. 25 that India would not be hit by recession and it would sustain an 08 % (more than 7.7 % as estimated by the above said EAC in its economic outlook submitted in the month of July) growth rate this year despite the global financial crisis.

CONTRADICTORY STATEMENTS

It took though no longer span of time than mere one month when Mr. Chidambaram accepted the emergence of a temporary slowdown in Indian economy. On 24 November 2008, while briefing the media after the meeting with CEO’s, he said that India must be prepared for a temporary slowdown in its economy because of the global financial meltdown. But, he again commented contrarily on Dec. 16 saying, “India is nowhere near recession”. However he added that Indian economy had been impacted by the global meltdown. Here in this comment Mr. Chidambaram accepted the global meltdown impacting the economy on one hand while, simultaneously, regarded the economy recession devoid on the other. It is worth noted here that Mr. Chdambaram made this statement while being in chair as Finance Minister and the statement came after a number of events like three block-closers observed by Tata Motors, three days week being observed by Ashok Leyland, rapidly falling inflation rate, falling banking rates, dismissal of 2.5 % workforce in Wipro, loss of 65000 jobs in 121 surveyed export oriented units etc. (making the slowdown amply clear) had already come about in Indian economy well before Dec. 16. Moreover, the effect of economic depression, starting from America, Europe and other countries of the world, had become clear in Indian economy, too, up to the month of October. Before the beginning of October a decreasing trend started in the export business, the industrial production index and the revenue of indirect taxes, especially the production tax (excise duty). The GDP also decreased during the second quarter as compared to that in the first quarter of the financial year 2008-09. The total export of the country, in the month of October 2008, remained 12.1 % less than that in October 2007. Industrial production index also observed a 0.4 % decrease in that month. The production tax (excise duty) revenue in October 2008 became 8.7 % less than that in October 2007 and the growth rate of FDP in the second quarter (July to September 2008) was 7.6 % as against 7.9 % in the first quarter. Having felt the incoming of depression, the Government and RBI started taking preventive measures. RBI took steps for bringing the interest rates down and the government provided relief to industries by lowering the rates of production tax. However, the industrial sector felt all the so far taken measures (including the last bailout of Rs 3000 billion on December 09, 2008, too) insufficient and therefore was demanding one more package.

On the other hand, Hindustan, Hindi Daily, Dec.15, 2008, states that contrary to the above Mr. P. Chidambaram, as the finance minister of India, in the meeting of World Economic Forum, refused to accept the presence of depression in Indian economy. I can’t understand why Mr. Chidambaram makes contradicting versions and accepts not the things ingenuously. All the same, I appreciate that by doing so he presents himself as a true Indian politician. Leaving aside the (whatever) disingenuous comments of Mr. Chidambaram, there are but enough grounds for us not only to believe but to prove that Indian economy stands now encompassed well by depression, though because of the global meltdown.

REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2008 – 09

Finally the Economic Advisory Council of the Prime Minister of India submitted the second report on the ‘Review of Indian Economy 2008 – 09 on Jan. 23. Executive Summery of the report accepts the impact of global economic and financial crisis in Indian economy when it reads as ‘the direct impact of funding constraints on the investment plans of Indian corporates and hence on growth and job creation, together with the second order effects of this development, coupled with the compression in export markets and the second order effects on this count, are the two principal channels through which the impact of the global financial and economic crisis are being felt in India’. The summery further reads as ‘India and perhaps China, would have a difficult time in the first part of the year, but should be able to show a pickup in growth in the last quarter of 2009, if not earlier’. The Council, vide its said report, expects that in the financial year 2009 – 10, the Indian economy is likely to remain relatively weak in the first quarter (April–June) and slowly pick up thereafter and the economy would show fairly strong recovery in growth in the second half of the fiscal year (Oct 2009 to Mar 2010) assuming some improvement in international economic and financial conditions. Overall, the Council assesses that growth in 2009 – 10 would be between 7.0 and 7.5 % or some what above that, with the first half of the year averaging growth close to 7.0 % and the second half an average growth of close to 7.5 % or higher. The summery reveals that it has been apprehended in the report that the merchandise trade deficit is likely to touch historic highs despite the decline in oil prices. But the Council expects that it is likely to be offset to a large extent by higher net invisible earnings.

As regards to the inflation rate, the report states that WPI inflation peaked at close to 13 per cent in August 2008. Consumer price inflation continued to rise to 11 per cent in October and November due to price increase in primary foodstuff. The Council expects that the WPI inflation rate for manufactured goods is likely to fall to 4 per cent in February and fall further by the end of March 2009 and this falling trend may continue for a few months into the next fiscal year due to the base effect, given that a large part of the price surge happened between March and June of 2008. However, inflation in primary foods is stated to likely remain elevated at near about 8 %. The report also expects that inflation in energy prices will be negative, as will be that in some non-food primary articles like iron ore. Overall the headline WPI inflation rate is likely to go down to near about 4 % by the end of February or the beginning of March, with a potential for more declines after that. CPI inflation will also fall, but the extent of the fall is unlikely to match that for WPI, considering the expected higher rate of food inflation and its larger weight in the consumer price indices.

All the same, the Council is of the view that the present crisis has come upon the Indian economy at a point of time where several of its components are in relatively strong shape. It opines that Indian enterprises have learnt the hard lessons of the importance of managing business and financial risks, and are thus to that extent in a better position to ride out the storm of this crisis. Indian banks have also gone through a transformational process. Whatever deterioration in asset quality the present crisis brings in its awake, Indian banks today are better prepared to deal with it than at any time in their history. On Jan. 23, 2009, in Singapore, Mr. Om Prakash Bhatt, Chairman, SBI, while speaking on ’60 years of Indian Republic and future challenges’, also presented the same opinion by saying that Indian banks are safe in the present time of world depression despite here the banks of the world’s big economies are collapsing. He further added that the Indian banks are in a strong position on account of their managerial skill of world level which they had well achieved when doors for foreign banks were opened in Indian economy.

Going through the executive summery of the report, one can conclude that the Council though accepts that the economic crisis (named as Depression 2008) has encompassed Indian economy but it believes the situation to be temporary. Therefore the Council confidently speaks of the Indian economy likely and rather believably to show fairly strong recovery in growth in the second half (Oct 2009 to Mar 2010) of the present fiscal year. The confidence of the Council is based on its belief regarding some improvement in international economic and financial conditions. I don’t agree with the optimistic stand of the Council. Nor I am aware of whether the reason of the Council’s being so optimistic is a political strategy or an economic analysis. Moreover, contrary to the conclusion and the opinion of the Council mentioned in the said summery, some big organizations like World Bank, IMF and National Association of Business Economists (of America), have revealed in their separately carried on surveys that the prices of necessary commodities would go down by up to 23 % in 2009. First time in the last two and a half decades the world may face a decrease in the world growth rate and the trade pool. On the basis of a survey of 185 countries, the World Bank has estimated, in its report titled as World Economic Situation and Prospects that in the first half of 2009 unemployment would be the biggest problem before the world. In addition to this, ILO report entitled The Global Wage Report 2008-09 holds that difficult times lie ahead for the world’s 1.5 billion wage earners. The report further states, “Slow or negative economic growth, combined with highly volatile food and energy prices, will erode the real wages of many workers, particularly the low-wage and poorer households. The middle classes will also be seriously affected”. The report warns that tensions are likely to intensify over wages. Based on the latest IMF growth figures, the ILO forecasts that the global growth in real wages will at best reach 1.1 per cent in 2009, compared to 1.7 per cent in 2008, but wages are expected to decline in a large number of countries, including major economies.

CONCLUSION

Indian economy can’t remain untouched by any economic turmoil in the rest of the world. The present economic slowdown in Indian economy also is an aftermath of the recession prevailing in almost all big economies of the world. Therefore, the conclusions made and inferences drawn by some big organizations like World Bank, IMF, National Association of Business Economists (of America) and ILO on the basis of extended survey and analysis of the world economies are not only applicable to Indian economy but they are believable, too, at least more than those drawn by national agencies like ‘Economic Advisory Council of the Prime Minister of India’ from their own national level surveys. The above said big organizations have not given any indication towards their being expectant regarding start of economic upswing from the third quarter (Sept. to Dec.) of 2009 and onward. Hence the world economic scenario may rather worsen throughout the present fiscal year.

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